An interesting quote

[eveglass]

From a book I just finished:

"Here's another crazy game. Suppose the state of California made its citizens the following offer: Of all those those pay the dollar or two to enter, most will receive nothing, one person will receive a fortune, and one person will be put to death in a violent manner. Would anyone enroll in that game? People do, and with enthusiasm. It is called the state lottery. And although the state does not advertise it in the manner in which I have described it, that is the way it works in practice. For while one lucky person wins the grand prize in each game, many millions of other contestants drive to and from their local ticket vendors to purchase their tickets, and some die in highway accidents along the way. Applying statistics from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and depending on such assumptions as how far each individual drives, how many tickets he or she buys, and how many people are involved in a typical accident, you find that a reasonable estimate of those fatalities is about one death per game."

Comments

[jadex3.livejournal.com]

Thanks for reminding me of my mortality Q_Q

[gurudata.livejournal.com]

Hiho,

Of course, this math works only if one assumes that the only reason any person takes this drive is *just* to buy the lottery ticket. And that everybody drives. If you remove all of the people that purchase lottery tickets as part of another trip, or those who take other means to get their tickets (bus, walk, etc.), the math changes and statement may no longer hold.

CU,
Andrew

[eveglass.livejournal.com]

True. Similarly if some of the assumptions are invalid.

But the point is amusing, nonetheless.

Heck, even if the odds were only half as good and you expressed it as, "most people will receive nothing, one person will receive a huge fortune, and one person every other time will be killed in a violent manner," I'm still pretty sure it would make some people pause.