Books of 2010: 29. Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller, by Jeff Rubin

Rubin's book is all about one thing: oil. More importantly, it presents the argument that we're running out of oil, and that's going to have far-ranging consequences. "Peak oil" doesn't mean that there's going to be absolutely no oil left, but that oil is going to become far more expensive to acquire and to refine. The oil shocks of 2008, Rubin argues, weren't a blip but the new reality, and the only reason oil prices have come down recently is because of the recession. As soon as the economy picks up, so too will oil prices, and we'll be back where we started. Long gone are the days of the $20 barrel of oil, Rubin argues; the new average is heading for the triple-digits.

The consequences of higher oil prices are going to be far-reaching. For one thing, people will drive less and live closer together. Food will become more expensive. Transportation costs, especially for trans-oceanic transportation, are going to become prohibitive, leading to more domestic manufacturing jobs and less imported Chinese goods. Rubin argues that as oil prices rise, globalization will naturally erode, causing the world to become "smaller" and more local.

I think Rubin makes a particularly compelling case, but he ignores one key area: war. Already we've seen the U.S. invade Iraq, and many people argue that at least one reason for the war is access to Iraq's oil. I don't think it's a far stretch to assume that as oil becomes ever more expensive, as demand rises and supply shrinks (or at least stagnates), countries are going to start grasping at the last pieces of the pie. Historically, as food prices rise, there are revolts, uprisings, and wars. Rubin's imagined future, harsh as it is, doesn't even begin to cover this aspect of human conflict.

Otherwise, though, I think this is a prescient book. I can see the next ten years or so being very much as Rubin describes them. For those who have never heard of "peak oil" before, or who are unconvinced, this is a well-written, well-researched book on the subject, and I recommend it.